Update: November 7, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET
Instead of heading toward Florida and the Gulf Coast of the
United States, Hurricane Rafael’s path shifted overnight and the storm is now
headed for the east coast of Mexico.
According to Weather.com, Rafael is expected to remain a
hurricane through late this week as it tracks slowly toward the central Gulf of
Mexico. The storm is expected to weaken due to “dry air, some wind shear and
decreasing oceanic heat content.”
Forecasters believe Rafael will stay far enough south before
eventually drifting southwestward toward the Mexican Gulf Coast next week.
There is also a chance the storm fizzles in the western Gulf early next week
and brings no direct impact to land other than high surf and rip currents.
While it is a long shot, the National Hurricane Center said
there is a chance that a cold front could pull the remnants of Rafael along the
northern U.S. Gulf, carrying rain and wind.
Several major airlines in the United State issued travel
advisories and waived change fees for impacted Caribbean islands, but the
carriers have not extended the changes to additional locations as the path of
Rafael remains unclear.
As for the cruise industry, MSC Cruises announced an
alteration to the planned itinerary of one of its ships, MSC Seascape. Other
cruise lines are monitoring the situation and will alter sailings to avoid the
storm if necessary.
Update: Wednesday, November 6, 2024 at 12:30 p.m. ET
Hurricane Rafael is now a Category 2 storm as it nears western Cuba, packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, based on the latest information from the National Hurricane Center.
According to flight-tracking website FlightAware.com, roughly two-thirds of Wednesday's flights into and out of Havana's Jose Marti International Airport have been canceled.
In addition to canceled flights—many airlines have issued waivers for impacted customers—cruise lines have been impacted, with four Royal Caribbean ships and MSC Cruises' MSC Seascape changing their itineraries to keep guests safe.
Update: Wednesday, November 6, 2024 at 9:15 a.m. ET
Hurricane Rafael continues to gain strength as it approaches Cuba with landfall expected in the western part of the island on Wednesday.
Packing maximum sustained winds near 100 mph, Rafael has already impacted travel in other popular Caribbean destinations such as Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, forcing airlines to issue travel waivers for affected passengers and cruise lines to alter some itineraries.
The storm is forecast to bring wind and rain to the Florida Keys as well on Wednesday before it moves into the Gulf of Mexico where its track becomes more uncertain.
"Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning.
"Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today."
"Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba," experts added. "Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain.
"This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain."
Update: Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET
Major carriers including American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have joined the list of airlines issuing travel waivers for passengers in the path of Tropical Storm Rafael.
The storm has only gained momentum in recent days, passing by Jamaica and over the Cayman Islands as it tracks toward Cuba before entering the Gulf of Mexico where it could attain hurricane status.
Flights and cruise itineraries have been impacted so travelers are encouraged to check with their airline and other travel suppliers for the latest updates.
Update: Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 9:10 a.m. ET
Caribbean Airlines has canceled several flights to and from Jamaica as Tropical Storm Rafael continues to strengthen in the Caribbean.
In a statement, the airline confirmed that it "will not be responsible for transportation to/from an alternate airport or hotel/overnight expenses incurred by affected passengers."
Impacted travelers may rebook without fee or penalty by December 2, 2024.
United Airlines, Air Canada and WestJet have issued waivers for travelers booked on flights in the storm's track, including airports in Kingston, Montego Bay, Havana and others.
As many as four Royal Caribbean cruise ships have also adjusted their itineraries in response to Rafael, including Brilliance of the Seas, Freedom of the Seas, Radiance of the Seas and Vision of the Seas.
As of Tuesday morning, Rafael was located 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Rafael is expected to pass over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday before reaching Cuba on Wednesday.
Update: Monday, November 4, 2024 at 7:45 p.m. ET
As expected, the disturbance in the western Caribbean reached tropical storm status late Monday, becoming Rafael and the Atlantic's 17th named storm as it approaches Jamaica.
The strengthening storm is expected to reach hurricane status before passing over Cuba later this week.
Heavy winds and rains are anticipated so travelers should continue to stay alert.
Original Text
Forecasters are monitoring a disturbance in the Caribbean that has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm and ultimately a hurricane in the coming days.
The system—which would be named Rafael if it achieves tropical storm status—could impact a handful of popular Caribbean destinations with heavy winds and rain, including the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Cuba.
As of Monday morning, the disturbance was roughly 220 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and 425 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. Both destinations are in the storm's projected path.
"The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or storm today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter," the National Hurricane Center said Monday. "The system is expected to move near Jamaica this evening, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday" and "could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands and Cuba."
"Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected," officials warned. "Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible," the center noted."
It's unclear where the system could track once it enters the Gulf of Mexico so travelers in the southeast U.S. from Texas to Florida are advised to stay alert through the end of the week.
Airlines have yet to issue travel waivers as a result of the latest forecast but flight disruptions are possible.
For the latest travel news, updates and deals, subscribe to the daily TravelPulse newsletter.
Topics From This Article to Explore
